Swiss Banks Rebound From Italian Amnesty Debacle
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Morgan Stanley has estimated in a research report that the Italian 'offshore'
tax amnesty will have been more successful than originally estimated, with up
to a quarter of the EUR400bn estimated 'illegitimate' overseas financial assets
of Italians having been declared to the authorities by the time that the amnesty
finally comes to an end this April.
Originally the amnesty ran until mid-December, with a fine of just 5% of undeclared
assets, but was extended to April, with a fine of 6%. It is thought that about
two-thirds of the declared assets will have been repatriated to Italy, since
in the early stages of the amnesty Switzerland, home of the bulk of the undelcared
assets, did not have an information-sharing agreement with Italy, which would
have permitted the assets to remain where they were. But after the OECD removed
Switzerland from its 'grey' list of countries in September, the repatriation
rule no longer applies.
Although Morgan Stanley estimates that top Swiss banks will have seen lost
assets topping EUR15bn as a result of the amnesty, it is still estimating that
the banks will have seen an increase in assets under management in Q4 of 2009
as a result of strong inflows from other parts of the world.
“Overall, we see a long-term decline of the European offshore business,
although winners may be able to offset this by Asia/BRIC wealth, market share
gains and mergers and acquisitions,” said the bank. |
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